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Sorry guys for not being around during tourney, but was on holiday and then was one week in Austria watching games (Spain- Greece and Turkey-Croatia)

first the breaking news everybody is talking about here....balack is doubtful with a calf-injury. he missed final practice session today.
against everything what is said i still expect hime to play if there is the smallest chance (BTW the same goes for Villa from spain)

looking trhu the all the funny stats the media is coming up i found one list amazing...from 13 EURO finals only 3 have ended on three goals and one on four all others went under 3...there was only one final with over 3 goals in regulation in history of EuRO...just found it amazing


for tomorrows game: for germany and from a betting point it s similar to the germany-portugal game:

i just dont see much between the teams..in the KO-round all games besides the spain-russia game were very,very tight. i expect the same here again.
Everybody (at least here in germany) is talking about the fact that the team did not play well, but than again(as always) the produced result...they started as the pre-tourney fav and here they are.
2-0 over Poland was very solid
1-2 against croatia was terrible, but a perfect let down situation and maybe the right wake up call.
1-0 over Austria was OK IMO...it was still a pressured match and they controlled austria the whole game (although not doing much on offense themselves)
3-2 Portugal : simply great
3-2 Turkey: struggling, but they did what only Portugal managed to do vs. Turkey...they won

everybody is talking about problems on offense..i dont see that with 10 goals from the matches so far. I also think Spain is a good team for german tacticians...
Spain plays great football, but they have tactics, which you can figure out and create a plan against...that was not the case vs. Turkey, but worked out great vs. Portugal.

Spain: very solid..only team without loss in tourney...what everybody forgets about them IMO is the great defense.
4-1 over Russia: played great, but also got some garbage goals, but still a great game
2-1 over sweden: struggling, but got the winner late
2-1 over greece: B-team was plying
0-0 vs. Italy...solid defense, but struggling to create chance
3-0 vs. russia: terrible first half , but then nice performance vs. tired russian

overall i see them a bit overhyped by high wins over russia. goals came after takingthe lead...and spain is a great team having a lead and being able to go on counter attacks.
but they always struggled to get the opening goal (sweden,Greece,italy and russia match)...that is a weakness good tactical team can exploit, like the weak italians did and probably also german

My pick is

Germany pk,+0.5 @ 1.90
not sure if germany is winning, but i expect a very close and tight match similar to italy-spain..therefore a draw makes the bet a winner and thats simply great value with any German Team in a final.
i am also leaning to the under, but not quite sure yet how to play it...a 1-1 seems a very possible result to me.

BOL to all and GO GERMANY
 

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Cmon Chiriscol--what a homer call!!!-LOL
I missed your insight for the tourney--hope you had fun
GL--Go ESP
 

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Cmon Chiriscol--what a homer call!!!-LOL
I missed your insight for the tourney--hope you had fun
GL--Go ESP

Never ever underestimate Germany as a dog..to me just concerned if Ballack in or out..if in i am with Germany AH.if not..tough call.

Chris nice write up,thanks and GL.
 

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How about the under?

(How do you like my avatar?)

avatar is nice :103631605

i like the under,too...it s a final and i dont see a very offensive game. i think only an early goal can bring it over, but i dont expect that
 

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Nice to see you post your thoughts on the finale, chris.

I am not gonna touch this one...sorta looking at the under but prob. will just sit back and enjoy this match.

gl, chris.
 

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Prop bet: under 4 yellow cards @ 1.86

i am following these prop bets the whole tourney, so i have a certain feel for it. i see three factors here which fav the under

1) Rosetti as a ref: i was at the croatia-turkey match and have seen him live. i was pretty heavy on the over yellow in that game,which seemed obvious with hot blooded teams like croatia and turkey involved, and i was very upset sometimes about the ref....he just didnt give any yellow cards for fouls would have done it. it s just when you sit in the stands you feel what has to be a yellow and what not (especially when you counting the cards:lolBIG:) ...anyway the match ended on 3-0 cards for turkey (in regulation)
Now that he is ref for the final i looked at his other matches:
Opening game: swiss-czech: 3-0
Greece- Russia: 2-2
Turkey- croatia: 3-0
He also was the ref in the second leg of this years champ league semi between chelsea and Liverpool (heated atmosphere as well) and he kept it to 0-2 yellow cards.

Bottom lines : this guy tends to give very few yellow cards

2) The teams: pure yellow stats
Germany: vs. Poland: 1-2, vs. Croatia 4-2 (but 3 were given in 90th minute), vs. Austria 0-3, vs. Portugal 2-3, vs. Turkey 0-2

this is all relatively low and besides croatia game germany alway got less than opponnent

Spain: vs. russia 0-0, vs. sweden 1-1, vs. greece 2-3, vs. italy 2-1, vs. russia 0-2
4 unders here again.


3) Since the KO stage...yellows go down...so far it was: 3-2,3-0,3-1,2-1,0-2,0-2....again only one over
 

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